Outlying North Collin County stretches across the rural and exurban fringe of Collin County beyond the core McKinney, Allen, and Frisco corridor, taking in Prosper, Celina, Anna, Melissa, and Princeton. This is the first CoStar-sourced market report Metroport Commercial Group has produced for this submarket, using data as of mid-year 2026.

This report benchmarks the submarket’s current capital markets and leasing fundamentals against its own five- and ten-year historical averages and the broader Dallas-Fort Worth market, and outlines what the data means for owners, investors, and tenants.

A note on the data: Texas is a non-disclosure state, so sale prices only reach CoStar when a public company, REIT, or a broker with an incentive to publicize a deal chooses to report one. Only one of the eight sales in this submarket over the past year carries a disclosed price, so the capital markets figures below should be read as directional rather than comprehensive. Asking rent, vacancy, and absorption, which are trend datasets rather than a handful of voluntary disclosures, are the more reliable indicators of this submarket’s actual health and are weighted accordingly throughout this report.

Executive Summary: A Small, Owner-User Market Working Through a Supply Wave

Key signals from the trailing 12 months:

• Asset value stands at $506 million, with just $1.5 million in trailing 12-month sales volume across 8 transactions, roughly in line with the submarket’s own 10-year average of $1.4 million, though Texas’s non-disclosure rules mean actual transaction activity likely runs higher than what’s reported
• Vacancy has climbed to 8.4%, well above the submarket’s five-year average of 4.9% and 10-year average of 6.7%, driven by 159,000 SF of deliveries against only 25,000 SF of absorption
• The market cap rate sits at 6.9%, a 70 basis point premium to the broader Dallas-Fort Worth average of 6.2%
• Market sale pricing (CoStar’s estimated series, not transaction-price-dependent) of $172/SF runs roughly 15% above the Dallas-Fort Worth-wide average of $150/SF
• Asset ownership by dollar value skews 71% national and 29% local by origin, even though the one disclosed sale over the past year was a local, private, owner-user transaction; owner type is overwhelmingly private and user (99% combined), with essentially no institutional ownership
• Asking rent growth has cooled to 2.1% year over year, in line with the broader DFW market but well below the submarket’s own five-year (6.3%) and 10-year (5.8%) averages

Outlying Collin County remains a small, thinly reported market where sale comparables are scarce by design, not necessarily by lack of activity. Leasing fundamentals, namely a wave of small-bay and flex deliveries that has temporarily outpaced tenant demand, are the more trustworthy read on where this submarket stands.

Capital Markets Performance Metrics (Mid-Year 2026)

Key capital markets metrics as of mid-year 2026:

• Total Asset Value: $506M
• 12-Month Sales Volume: $1.5M
• Transactions (12 mo): 8
• Market Cap Rate: 6.9% (vs. 6.2% DFW average)
• Average Sale Price/SF: $300 (single disclosed transaction)
• Market Floor Price/SF: $172 (vs. $150 DFW average)

The 8 transactions that closed over the past year totaled 111,000 SF of transacted space, an average of just 13,881 SF per deal, owner-user scale rather than institutional scale. Only one of the eight sales carried a disclosed price, consistent with Texas’s non-disclosure environment. The more reliable read on pricing is CoStar’s market-wide estimate of $172/SF, which is modeled from broader comparable and assessment data rather than voluntary disclosure, and itself runs roughly 15% above the Dallas-Fort Worth average of $150/SF.

Cap Rate Dynamics and Pricing Power

• The submarket’s 6.9% market cap rate compares to a broader Dallas-Fort Worth average of 6.2%, a 70 basis point premium that reflects the smaller pool of buyers and comparables typical of an outlying, exurban submarket
• Market sale pricing by product type varies meaningfully: logistics is estimated at $161/SF, flex at $220/SF, and specialized industrial at $153/SF
• No sale-to-asking price differential is reported for the period, a function of both limited transaction volume and Texas’s non-disclosure rules, under which asking and closing prices are rarely both made public
• The one disclosed sale, 104 E 7th St in Prosper, closed at $300/SF, well above the market-wide estimate, but reflects a small (5,000 SF), fully vacant, 1973-vintage owner-user purchase, one data point, not a comparable market transaction

Notable Sale Activity

Outlying North Collin County shows only one disclosed-price sale in the trailing 12 months, which is standard for a small submarket in a non-disclosure state rather than proof that only local, private capital is transacting. Read narrowly, the single disclosed deal was 100% local and private by dollar volume; read at the ownership-stock level, which draws on assessment and public records rather than voluntary disclosure, national capital actually owns 71% of the submarket’s asset value by origin, against 29% local, even though owner type remains almost entirely private and user (99% combined) with essentially no institutional ownership. In short: institutional capital is genuinely absent here, but “local-only” buying activity is likely an artifact of what gets reported, not the full picture.

The submarket’s single disclosed transaction is illustrative of the kind of deal that does get reported: 104 E 7th St in Prosper, a 5,000 SF building constructed in 1973, sold in September 2025 for $1.5 million ($300/SF) to Frisco Construction Services from longtime owners Cara Sorensen and Jeff Sorensen, who had held the property more than 20 years. The building was 100% vacant at closing and purchased for owner occupancy; Elevated Properties brokered both sides of the transaction.

Leasing Market Fundamentals: Deliveries Outpacing Demand

Because sale-price data is thin in a non-disclosure state, leasing fundamentals, vacancy, absorption, deliveries, and asking rent, are the most reliable gauge of this submarket’s real trajectory. They softened over the trailing 12 months as new supply outran tenant demand.

• Vacancy: 8.4% (vs. 4.9% five-year average and 6.7% 10-year average)
• Availability: 19.7% (approximately 580,000 SF)
• Trailing 12-month absorption: approximately 24,800 SF (vs. historical average of approximately 55,600 SF per year)
• Trailing 12-month deliveries: approximately 159,000 SF (vs. historical average of approximately 64,000 SF per year)

Deliveries outpaced absorption by more than 6 to 1 over the past year, pushing vacancy well above both the submarket’s five- and 10-year norms. CoStar forecasts vacancy to climb further, to 10.8% by year-end 2026, as the current construction pipeline continues to deliver. Leverage currently favors tenants across logistics and flex product, though specialized and small-bay space remains comparatively tight.

Development Pipeline and Supply Dynamics

• Under Construction: 502,740 SF, more than double the submarket’s 10-year average of approximately 200,000 SF

Notable pipeline projects:

• 4220 Preston Road (100,000 SF, 5-star), the largest project currently under construction, expected to complete October 2026
• 6201 N McDonald St (97,980 SF, 4-star), expected to complete December 2026
• Heritage Park Phase II at 3600 Louisiana Dr (78,300 SF), expected to complete May 2027
• Three buildings at Harrison St & Concho Dr (38,760 SF each, 116,280 SF combined), expected to complete January 2027
• HOLT CAT’s 84,055 SF owner-occupied facility at 451 East Outer Loop Road, delivered August 2025, is the submarket’s largest recent owner-user completion

Beyond what’s under construction, the proposed pipeline (1,065,500 SF over the next 8 quarters) is led by a 500,000 SF building on N Louisiana Drive (developer Dustin H Sparks) and a 150,000 SF project on Prosper Trail, both large-format projects that would mark a meaningful step up in building scale for this submarket if they proceed.

Market Rents by Product Type

Asking rents vary by building type, which matters most for smaller owners and tenants pricing out space:

• Logistics: $15.62/SF, 7.9% vacancy, 18.5% availability
• Specialized Industrial: $17.14/SF, 5.1% vacancy, 5.1% availability
• Flex: $18.38/SF, 12.9% vacancy, 32.3% availability
• Submarket blended average: $16.44/SF, 8.4% vacancy, 19.7% availability

Specialized Industrial is the tightest of the three segments at 5.1% vacancy and 5.1% availability, though it carries meaningfully more breathing room than the sub-2% specialized vacancy seen in neighboring Allen/McKinney. Flex is the loosest segment by a wide margin, with nearly a third of its inventory currently available.

Rent Growth Drivers

• Asking Rent Growth (YoY): 2.1%, matching the broader Dallas-Fort Worth average, but below the submarket’s own five-year average of 6.3% and 10-year average of 5.8%

Why rent growth cooled:

• A wave of speculative and build-to-suit deliveries (159,000 SF trailing 12 months) pushed vacancy above historical norms
• Flex vacancy jumped to 12.9%, with nearly a third of flex inventory sitting available, dragging on blended rent growth
• Rents still carry a real premium over the broader DFW market ($16.44/SF submarket-wide versus roughly $10/SF DFW-wide), leaving less room for continued rapid appreciation after several years of above-average growth

Small-Bay and Owner-User Space: More Room Than Peer Submarkets

Unlike neighboring Allen/McKinney, where specialized industrial space is essentially fully leased, Outlying Collin County’s small-bay inventory carries real, if modest, availability at 5.1% vacancy and 5.1% availability. The submarket’s own deal history bears this out: the average transacted building size over the past year was just 13,881 SF, and much of the current under-construction pipeline is genuinely small-to-midsize. Recent and in-progress small-bay deliveries include the Business 289 development in Celina (three buildings, 9,920 to 12,000 SF each, delivered February 2026, Cypress Equity Investments LLC) and the Industrial Way Dr. park in Prosper (three buildings, 11,584 to 11,700 SF each, delivered January 2026). Owners and tenants targeting sub-25,000 SF space have more real options here than in the tighter, bulk-dominated submarkets closer to McKinney and Allen, though that could change: the two largest proposed projects in the pipeline, at 500,000 SF and 150,000 SF, would represent a meaningful shift toward large-format bulk product if they move forward.

Strategic Market Positioning

• For Owners and Owner-Occupants: This remains a thinly reported market. If you own specialized or small-bay product, you hold the tightest segment in the submarket at 5.1% vacancy, which should support both sale pricing and lease renewal leverage. If you’re planning to sell, budget for a longer marketing period: CoStar’s data shows a 50% probability of sale at around 12 months on market, with the probability of a sale not approaching certainty until well beyond a year. If you’re buying for your own operation, expect a limited pool of comparable recent sales, but real availability, unlike tighter peer submarkets, specialized and small-bay space here isn’t essentially fully leased.
• For Tenants: Vacancy and availability have both risen sharply as deliveries outpaced absorption roughly six to one over the past year, giving tenants real leverage, particularly in logistics (18.5% availability) and flex (32.3% availability). Specialized and small-bay space is tighter at 5.1% vacancy and availability, so tenants needing that specific product type should start their search early, but the broader submarket currently favors tenants on price and terms more than the five-year average would suggest. Several small-bay projects (11,600 to 12,000 SF buildings) have delivered or are under construction in Prosper and Celina, giving tenants genuine near-term options outside of the largest bulk product.
• For Institutional Buyers: This submarket is genuinely private and user owned (99% combined), with essentially no institutional presence. That’s a more trustworthy signal than the thin sales volume figures. Cap rates running 70 basis points above the broader DFW average reflect real illiquidity, not just underreporting.

Market Outlook and Investment Thesis

• Capital Markets Outlook: With cap rates running roughly 70 basis points above the broader DFW average, expect Outlying Collin County to remain a thinly traded, owner-user-dominated market through the balance of 2026. Pricing at $172/SF sits above the DFW average of $150/SF, but with only one disclosed comparable sale in the past year, non-disclosure means reported figures should be treated as directional; asking rent and vacancy trends are the better forward indicator.
• Leasing Outlook: Vacancy is forecast to climb further, to 10.8% by year-end 2026, as the current 502,740 SF under construction, plus roughly 1.07 million SF proposed, works through lease-up. Expect landlords of logistics and flex product to compete on concessions through the balance of 2026 and into 2027, while specialized and small-bay landlords retain more pricing power given persistently tighter vacancy in that segment. If either of the two large proposed bulk projects (500,000 SF and 150,000 SF) breaks ground, it would mark a meaningful shift in the submarket’s building profile toward larger-format product.

Prepared by Brent Pennington, CCIM, ALC

Advisor, Senior Vice President

Metroport Commercial Group, eXp Commercial

1720 Bray Central Drive, Ste 100, McKinney, TX 75069

Phone: 817-999-8266

Email: brent@metroportcommercial.com

Website: www.metroportcre.com

Data Sources: CoStar Group, Outlying Collin County Industrial Submarket and Capital Markets Reports, July 2026.