Plano Industrial Capital Market Report Mid-Year 2026

Plano’s industrial footprint centers on the intersection of North Central Expressway and President George Bush Turnpike, anchored by Texas Instruments’ and Qorvo’s semiconductor manufacturing campuses and a deep bench of flex buildings built originally for Telecom Corridor tenants. Frisco’s industrial footprint is limited to mostly in the northern corridor south of Hwy 380.  Over the past year, vacancy has ticked up as a wave of large-format construction, including a new data center, has delivered, even as specialized and small-bay product has stayed essentially fully leased.

This report benchmarks Plano’s current capital markets and leasing fundamentals against the past year and the submarket’s own historical averages and the broader Dallas-Fort Worth market, and outlines what the data means for owners, investors, and tenants.

Executive Summary: Scarcity Pricing Meets a Portfolio-Driven Volume Spike

Key signals from the trailing 12 months:

• 12-month sales volume nearly doubled, from roughly $68.4 million a year ago to $133.7 million now, though the increase is driven almost entirely by a single 11-building, $130.1 million portfolio trade
• Transactions climbed to 67 over the past year, well above the 10-year average of 47, even though confirmed dollar volume remains far below the 2022 peak of $335 million
• Vacancy rose to 6.9%, up about 110 basis points year over year, but remains below both the submarket’s own 10-year historical average of 8.4% and the broader DFW average of 8.2%
• Market sale pricing climbed to $181/SF, a 10-year high, up from $175/SF a year ago, while the market cap rate held essentially flat at 6.4%
• Specialized industrial vacancy sits at just 1.2%, essentially fully leased, and commands the highest rent of any product type at $20.41/SF
• Asking rent growth cooled to 2.5% year over year, below the submarket’s own 5-year forecast average of 4.1%, as 747,000 SF of deliveries outpaced 357,000 SF of absorption

Plano remains a mature, high-barrier submarket where scarcity, not growth, drives value. A single large portfolio trade skews the headline capital markets number, but the more durable story is structurally tight small-bay and specialized space, with rents and sale pricing both sitting near 10-year highs.

Capital Markets Performance Metrics (Mid-Year 2026)

Key capital markets metrics as of mid-year 2026:

• Total Asset Value: $6.0B
• 12-Month Sales Volume: $133.7M (vs. $68.4M a year ago)
• Transactions (12 mo): 67 (vs. 10-year average of 47)
• Market Cap Rate: 6.4% (vs. 6.38% a year ago; roughly flat)
• Average Sale Price/SF: $167 (range $81 to $190 across 12-month transactions)
• Market Floor Price/SF: $181 (vs. $175 a year ago, a 10-year high)

The 67 transactions over the past year totaled 2.6 million SF of transacted space, an average deal size of roughly 38,200 SF. That volume of activity outpaces the submarket’s 10-year average of 47 deals a year, even though dollar volume remains well below the $335 million recorded across three record quarters in 2022. The single largest driver of this year’s dollar volume was Dalfen Industrial and Investcorp’s 11-building, $130.1 million acquisition from Mapletree Investments, which alone accounts for roughly 97% of trailing 12-month sales volume.

Cap Rate Dynamics and Pricing Power

• The market cap rate held essentially flat at 6.4%, up marginally from 6.38% a year ago, and tracks close to but modestly above the broader Dallas-Fort Worth average of roughly 6.2%
• Market sale pricing climbed to $181/SF, up from $175/SF a year ago and near the top of its 10-year range ($90 to $181), compared to a Dallas-Fort Worth average of roughly $152/SF
• Sale-to-asking price differential averaged -3.4% over the past year, tighter than the roughly -18% trough seen in 2022, signaling sellers are recovering pricing power
• 4-5 star assets have overtaken 1-2 star product in price per square foot since 2024, reflecting a flight to quality among buyers

Institutional Transaction Activity

Plano is genuinely institutional territory. Top owners include GIC Private Limited (Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund, 1.38 million SF across 18 properties), DRA Advisors (1.26 million SF, 16 properties), Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (990,000 SF, 13 properties), Prologis (871,000 SF, 8 properties), Blackstone, TIAA, MassMutual, and BlackRock, alongside owner-users Texas Instruments and Qorvo. By dollar value, national capital owns 85% of the submarket’s industrial asset base, against 9% local and 6% foreign.

Leasing Market Fundamentals: A Tight, Rent-Resilient Market

Leasing fundamentals softened modestly over the trailing 12 months as deliveries picked up, though Plano remains structurally tighter than the broader DFW market.

• Vacancy: 6.9% (up 1.1 points year over year, but below the submarket’s 10-year historical average of 8.4% and the DFW average of 8.2%)
• Availability: 9.4%
• Trailing 12-month absorption: approximately 357,000 SF (below the historical average of approximately 598,000 SF per year and the forecast average of approximately 566,000 SF per year)
• Trailing 12-month deliveries: approximately 747,000 SF (roughly in line with the historical average of approximately 706,000 SF per year)

Absorption slowed while deliveries accelerated, pushing vacancy modestly higher, but Plano remains tighter than both its own long-run average and the broader metro. CoStar’s forecast sees vacancy easing back toward its 6.8% historical average over the longer term as the current wave of large single-tenant and data-center-anchored construction gets absorbed.

Development Pipeline and Supply Dynamics

• Under Construction: 1,155,567 SF, roughly 1.8 times the submarket’s all-time annual average of 634,428 SF

Notable pipeline projects:

• DFW-04, a 425,500 SF data center at 401 N Star Rd developed by Aligned Data Centers, the single largest project under construction, expected to complete October 2026, notable that data center demand, not traditional logistics, is driving the largest project in the pipeline
• Trammell Crow Company’s twin buildings at 3300 and 3200 State Hwy 121 (194,945 SF and 170,722 SF, 365,667 SF combined), expected to complete November 2026
• A 120,000 SF City of Frisco project at 15155 Donnie Mayfield Way, expected to complete August 2026
• Foundry Commercial’s Plano Midway office-to-industrial conversion at 2700 W Plano Pky (two buildings, 226,860 SF and 96,072 SF, 322,932 SF combined), delivered March 2026 on the site of a demolished 250,000 SF office building and fully leased as of Q2 2026

Beyond what’s under construction, Prologis alone has proposed roughly 1.34 million SF across seven buildings, including a dedicated data center component, at its Atlantic Station campus, and Clearstone Partners has proposed the 600,000 SF Tennyson Technology Park, together anchoring a 1.51 million SF proposed pipeline that would mark a meaningful step up in scale for a submarket that has historically delivered well under 200,000 SF a year outside its largest single-tenant projects.

Market Rents by Product Type

Asking rents vary significantly by building type, which matters most for smaller owners and tenants pricing out space:

• Logistics: $14.13/SF, 8.8% vacancy, 12.2% availability
• Specialized Industrial: $20.41/SF, 1.2% vacancy, 2.0% availability
• Flex: $17.51/SF, 8.8% vacancy, 11.0% availability
• Submarket blended average: $16.44/SF, 6.9% vacancy, 9.4% availability

Specialized Industrial is the tightest segment by far at 1.2% vacancy and 2.0% availability, essentially fully leased, and commands the highest asking rent of the three segments even so. Logistics and flex carry meaningfully more availability, in the 11% to 12% range, giving larger-footprint tenants more real options than small-bay and specialized users have.

Rent Growth Drivers

• Asking Rent Growth (YoY): 2.5%, below the submarket’s own five-year forecast average of 4.1% and historical average of 3.7%, and well off the 9.5% peak reached in Q4 2022

Why rent growth cooled:

• A wave of large-format deliveries (747,000 SF trailing 12 months, including the 425,500 SF DFW-04 data center) added supply faster than the submarket’s historical norm
• Absorption slowed to roughly 357,000 SF, below both the historical and forecast averages
• Rents remain near a 10-year high in dollar terms, up from roughly $9/SF a decade ago to $16.44/SF today, leaving less room for continued double-digit growth after the 2021-2022 run-up

Small-Bay and Owner-User Space: Essentially Fully Leased

Plano’s small-bay and specialized product is genuinely scarce: 1.2% vacancy and 2.0% availability across 7.99 million SF of specialized inventory, the tightest reading of any product type across our North Texas coverage. Nearly all new construction and proposed supply, led by the Aligned data center, Prologis’s Atlantic Station campus, and the Tennyson Technology Park, skews to large single- or few-tenant buildings well above 100,000 SF, meaning little direct relief is coming for buyers or tenants under roughly 25,000 SF. The clearest recent counterexample is Foundry Commercial’s Plano Midway conversion at 2700 W Plano Pky, which redeveloped a vacant office building into 322,932 SF of industrial space across two buildings, both substantially leased within about a year of delivery, evidence that well-located redevelopment can still add mid-bay-scale product even where land for new ground-up construction is scarce.

Strategic Market Positioning

• For Owners and Owner-Occupants: If you own specialized or small-bay industrial product in Plano, you hold one of the scarcest assets in North Texas: 1.2% vacancy against sale pricing at a 10-year high of $181/SF. The sale-to-asking price differential has tightened to -3.4% on average, from roughly -18% at the 2022 trough, meaning pricing power is returning to sellers. Obsolescence, not vacancy, is the real long-term risk here: older single-story product in less accessible corridors can lag, so redevelopment and repositioning, as Foundry Commercial demonstrated at Plano Midway, may unlock more value than a straight hold. If you’re selling a larger asset, expect institutional and national buyers, who hold 85% of the submarket’s asset value by dollar, to be your most likely counterparty; smaller buildings continue to trade primarily to local owner-users.
• For Tenants: Vacancy at 6.9% is still below the broader DFW average and the submarket’s own historical norm, so competition for quality space remains real, especially for specialized and small-bay product, which is essentially fully leased at 1.2% vacancy. Larger logistics tenants have more room to work with at 12.2% availability, but most of what’s currently under construction or proposed, the Aligned data center and Prologis’s Atlantic Station campus among them, will not relieve small-bay scarcity. Start searches early, keep site criteria flexible, and consider sublease space or redevelopment product like Plano Midway; lease terms currently favor landlords across most product types in this submarket.
• For Institutional Buyers: This is genuinely institutional territory: GIC, DRA Advisors, Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, Prologis, Blackstone, TIAA, MassMutual, and BlackRock all hold meaningful positions, and Dalfen Industrial and Investcorp’s $130.1 million, 11-building acquisition from Mapletree in April 2026 is among the largest single trades in Metroport’s North Texas coverage this cycle. Cap rates near 6.4%, essentially flat year over year, combined with pricing at a 10-year high, suggest sellers currently hold the leverage on quality, well-leased assets.

Market Outlook and Investment Thesis

• Capital Markets Outlook: Expect continued institutional interest in Plano, though 2026’s headline sales volume is disproportionately a function of one large portfolio trade rather than broad-based deal flow; strip that transaction out and dollar volume remains well below the 2021-2022 peak. Cap rates near 6.4% and pricing at a 10-year high suggest the market has largely repriced and stabilized rather than continuing to compress or expand.
• Leasing Outlook: Vacancy is likely to hold in the high-6% to 7% range near-term as roughly 1.16 million SF under construction, more than 1.5 million SF proposed, and the Aligned data center all work through lease-up, though CoStar’s own forecast sees vacancy easing back toward its 6.8% historical average over the longer run. Specialized and small-bay space should stay structurally tight given essentially no new supply at that scale, supporting continued rent growth in that segment even as the blended market rate cools from its 2022 peak.

Prepared by Brent Pennington, CCIM, ALC

Advisor, Senior Vice President

Metroport Commercial Group, eXp Commercial

1720 Bray Central Drive, Ste 100, McKinney, TX 75069

Phone: 817-999-8266

Email: brent@metroportcommercial.com

Website: www.metroportcre.com

Data Sources: CoStar Group, Plano Industrial Submarket and Capital Markets Reports, July 2026.