Plano Industrial Market Update

Q3 2026

The Plano industrial market saw a surge in sales volume between Q2 2026 and Q3 2026 while leasing fundamentals softened modestly according to Costar analysis. Twelve-month sales volume rose 70% to $227.4M, vacancy moved from 6.9% to 7.5%, and asking rent growth slowed from 2.5% to 1.8%.

This report summarizes capital markets’ performance, leasing fundamentals, pricing dynamics, and strategic implications for owners, tenants, and investors in one of North Texas’s most constrained industrial submarkets. Data is current as of October 1, 2026 and is compared with the Q2 2026 CoStar reading.

Executive Summary: Capital Surges While Leasing Softens

Between Q2 and Q3 2026, Plano combined a sharp rise in investment activity with a slightly looser leasing market, while pricing held steady and rents eased slightly.

Key signals from the period included:

• Twelve-month sales volume climbed from $133.7M to $227.4M (+70%), roughly four times the submarket’s historical annual average of $54.6M
• Vacancy rose from 6.9% to 7.5% (60 basis points), still below the 8.4% historical average and the 7.7% Dallas-Fort Worth rate
• Trailing 12-month net absorption slowed from 357,000 SF to 241,000 SF, while 12-month deliveries grew from 747,000 SF to 865,000 SF
• Asking rent growth slowed from 2.5% to 1.8% year over year, and the blended asking rent eased from $16.44 to $16.30 per square foot
• The market cap rate edged up 10 basis points to 6.5%, while average sale pricing held near $166 per square foot
• Square footage under construction dipped from 1.16M SF to 1.08M SF

Explore Plano Business and Industrial Market Guide

Plano is a market where portfolio capital is arriving in size while the leasing market works through a year of new supply. Specialized and small-bay space remains tight, and the flex segment is where tenants now have the most room to negotiate.

Capital Markets Performance Metrics (Q2 2026 to Q3 2026)

Key changes over the period:

• Total Asset Value: $6B → $6B (flat)
• 12-Month Sales Volume: $133.7M → $227.4M (+70%)
• Transactions (12 mo): 67 → 74 (properties sold: 59 → 66)
• Market Cap Rate: 6.4% → 6.5% (10 bps expansion)
• Average Sale Price/SF: $167 → $166 (-$1)
• Market Pricing/SF: $181 → $179 (-$2)

Volume rose on both more deals and larger deals. Transacted square footage grew from 2.6M SF to 3.2M SF, and average deal size increased from roughly 38,200 SF to 43,100 SF. Sales volume now sits at about 45% of the 2022 peak of $507.2M and well above the historical average, a sharp pickup after a slower stretch. The share of properties that were leased at sale averaged 86.4%, down from 90.1%.

Cap Rate Dynamics and Pricing Power

• The market cap rate moved from 6.4% to 6.5%, a modest 10 basis point increase. Buyers are asking for slightly higher returns, but the move does not signal a repricing.
• Average sale pricing was essentially flat at $166 per square foot, compared with $167 in Q2, and estimated market pricing eased from $181 to $179 per square foot. CoStar puts Plano pricing roughly 20% above the rest of Dallas-Fort Worth.
• Market sale price growth held at 2.7% year over year, unchanged from Q2.
• Average transaction size fell from $8.9M to $8.4M per property, reflecting the continued dominance of small and mid-sized buildings in the sales mix.

Institutional Transaction Activity

Larger portfolio trades in recent months lifted overall volume, even as quarter-to-quarter investment remained relatively slow. Institutional and private portfolio capital shaped the period.

• Mapletree Investments to Dalfen Industrial: Dalfen acquired Mapletree’s 1.4 million SF, 20-property industrial portfolio in Q2 2026. Most of the portfolio sits in Plano, including Plano Business Park and the Jupiter North Distribution Center, and features a mix of small-bay tenants. Occupancy at the time of sale was 93%, with a weighted average lease term of 3 years.
• Blackstone to Bleeker Partners: Blackstone sold a 12-property portfolio to local private buyer Bleeker Partners. Half of the assets are in the Plano submarket, mostly small to medium-sized industrial buildings near Palisades Industrial Park.

The mix of portfolio capital with a local private buyer on the Blackstone sale shows two buyer types competing for small and mid-sized Plano product.

Leasing Market Fundamentals: Vacancy Edges Up, Availability Holds

Leasing conditions softened modestly between Q2 and Q3, although the most recent quarter was positive.

Key leasing metrics:

• Vacancy: 7.5% (historical average 8.4%)
• Availability: 9.4% (flat)
• Trailing 12-month net absorption: 241,000 SF (historical average 594,000 SF)
• Trailing 12-month deliveries: 865,000 SF (historical average 710,000 SF)
• Current-quarter net absorption: 189,033 SF, with no deliveries in either quarter
• Inventory: 32.3M SF → 32.4M SF

Absorption over the past 12 months is running at about 40% of the historical annual average while deliveries are above it, which explains why vacancy has crept up over the year. Vacancy is 1.8 percentage points above its level a year ago, yet it still sits below the 8.4% historical average and close to the 7.7% Dallas-Fort Worth rate. Availability is flat at 9.4%, and CoStar’s vacancy forecast has risen from 6.8% to 7.4%.

Demand signals remain steady. UL Solutions opened its expanded HVACR Center of Excellence in Plano to meet growing demand for product testing, including AI data center cooling technology. WareSpace opened a 174,500 SF business hub at 700 E. Plano Parkway in a converted vacant retail property, with flexible private warehouse suites and short-term leases aimed at more than 160 small businesses. Most other recent Plano Economic Development announcements involve office or headquarters expansions rather than industrial space.

Development Pipeline and Supply Dynamics

• Under Construction: 1.08M SF (-7%)
• Logistics: 579,257 SF
• Specialized Industrial: 427,967 SF
• Flex: 71,534 SF

About 40% of the pipeline is specialized product, and that figure is consistent with the Aligned Data Centers DFW-04 project (425,500 SF), which CoStar’s April report showed scheduled to complete in October 2026. Logistics makes up about 54% of what is underway. Ground-up supply inside Plano remains limited, and the 865,000 SF delivered over the past 12 months is above the 710,000 SF historical average, which is why vacancy has drifted higher.

Market Rents by Product Type

Asking rents vary significantly by building type, which matters most for smaller owners and tenants pricing out space:

• Logistics: $14.13 /SF;   vacancy 8.8%; availability 12.2%
• Specialized Industrial: $20.41 /SF; vacancy 1.2% ; availability 2.0%
• Flex: $17.51 /SF; vacancy 8.8% ; availability 11.0%
• Submarket blended average: $16.44 /SF; vacancy 6.9% ; availability 9.4%

Specialized Industrial is the tightest segment by far at 1.1% vacancy and 1.8% availability. The drop in its average asking rent should be read with care, because specialized inventory grew by about 470,000 SF while logistics inventory shrank by about 370,000 SF with no deliveries recorded. That pattern points to a reclassification of existing buildings between product types, which changes the rent mix without any change in what an individual building commands.

Rent Growth Drivers

• Asking Rent Growth (YoY): 2.5% → 1.8% (historical average 3.6%, forecast average 4.1% → 3.4%)

Why rent growth cooled:

• Vacancy is 1.8 percentage points above its level a year ago, and flex vacancy reached 10.0%
• Twelve-month deliveries of 865,000 SF exceeded the historical average while absorption ran well below it
• A shift in the product mix, including the reclassification noted above, pulled down the specialized average rent

Plano’s blended asking rent of $16.30 per square foot remains supported by limited land, high replacement costs, and a tenant base weighted toward technology and advanced manufacturing. CoStar’s forecast calls for rent growth to recover toward 3.4% as the new supply is absorbed.

Small-Bay and Owner-User Space: Tight, Older, and Hard to Match

For businesses looking to buy or lease space under 10,000 SF, Plano remains a tight market. Specialized industrial space is 1.1% vacant and 1.8% available across 8.5M SF, about 26% of inventory, and nearly all of what CoStar shows under construction in that segment is a data center rather than small-bay product. Flex space, at 7.2M SF or about 22% of inventory, offers the most breathing room at 10.0% vacancy and 11.1% availability.

As of October 1, 2026, CoStar showed 43 industrial properties existing or under construction for lease. Most of that space is pre-2006 construction, with one 2023 building in the area around US 75 and the George Bush Turnpike. Available spaces range from 3,000 SF to more than 100,000 SF, so fit, clear height, and building function matter as much as price. The one new mid-bay project is on SH 121 near Independence Parkway, with 32-foot ceilings and a minimum space requirement of 35,000 SF. Smaller buildings are the other counterexample: CoStar’s April report listed small-bay projects at 2710 Hensley Ln (four buildings of 5,401 to 12,598 SF) and Wylie Park Blvd (five buildings of 4,080 to 5,452 SF) with completion dates of May and June 2026, and flex space under construction still totals 71,534 SF. WareSpace adds a different option, with short-term private warehouse suites for businesses that need flexibility before committing to a long lease.

Strategic Market Positioning

• For Owners and Owner-Occupants: If you own a small-bay specialized building in Plano, you hold a scarce asset. Specialized space is 1.1% vacant, which supports renewal leverage and sale value. Flex owners face a different picture, with 10.0% vacancy and more competition for tenants, so price and market flex space to current conditions. If you want to buy for your operation, expect an older inventory, with most space built before 2006, and spend time on clear height, dock access, power, and truck court before you commit. Portfolio buyers have been active, so owners of small and mid-sized buildings near areas like Palisades Industrial Park may see inbound interest worth evaluating.
• For Tenants: Tenants needing specialized or small-bay space under 10,000 SF face a tight market and should start early, widen the search radius, and be ready to compromise on building age. Tenants who can use flex or larger logistics space have more leverage, with flex vacancy at 10.0% and logistics availability at 12.5%. Businesses that want a smaller commitment can look at short-term suites such as WareSpace, and users who need modern clear height should evaluate the new mid-bay project on SH 121 near Independence Parkway, keeping its 35,000 SF minimum in mind.
• For Institutional Buyers: The cap rate edged up to 6.5% and pricing is steady near $166 per square foot, so the market is showing discipline rather than a repricing. Portfolio capital, including Dalfen’s acquisition of the Mapletree portfolio, continues to find product in Plano, mostly in small-bay and multi-tenant buildings.

Market Outlook and Investment Thesis

• Capital Markets Outlook: Sales volume is well above the historical average, but portfolio trades drove much of the increase, so the pace is likely to settle unless more large packages come to market. Expect cap rates to move gradually and pricing to stay near current levels, with small-bay and multi-tenant assets continuing to draw private and institutional buyers.
• Leasing Outlook: CoStar forecasts vacancy averaging 7.4% and rent growth averaging 3.4%. With 1.08M SF under construction and a large share of it a data center, new supply to compete for small users is limited, and the absorption recorded in the most recent quarter is an encouraging sign. Expect vacancy to hold in the mid-7% range, flex to stay the most negotiable segment, and specialized and small-bay space to stay scarce.

Prepared by Brent Pennington, CCIM, ALC

Advisor, Senior Vice President

Metroport Commercial Group, eXp Commercial

1720 Bray Central Drive, Ste 100, McKinney, TX 75069

Phone: 817-999-8266

Email: brent@metroportcommercial.com

Website: www.metroportcre.com

Data Sources: CoStar Group, Plano Industrial Submarket and Capital Markets Reports, October 2026; Plano EDC.